Geopolitical Shocks and Industrial Resilience - 2026 Mid-Year Outlook

Geopolitical Shocks and Industrial Resilience - 2026 Mid-Year Outlook
Geopolitical shocks and industrial resilience: EPCA Managing Director Johann Lenhart’s 2026 mid-year outlook

Dear EPCA members,

​As we enter the second half of 2026, Europe’s petrochemical industry is facing heightened geopolitical volatility, persistent structural cost pressures and renewed trade uncertainties. These developments are putting the resilience of Europe’s industrial base to the test.

The war in Ukraine initially cut off access to affordable energy. More recently, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has further undermined feedstock security. Although a recent memorandum of understanding has enabled the temporary resumption of shipping, the situation remains fragile. This volatility highlights our industry's significant exposure to geopolitical developments. Adding to the uncertainty are signals of potential new US tariffs on EU products at a time when several chemical producers are already redirecting investments away from Europe. These trends make the case for urgent, decisive support for Europe’s industrial base more compelling than ever.

At the same time, the Commission’s 2025 Chemical Industry Action Plan, the launch of the Critical Chemicals Alliance and the proposed Industrial Accelerator Act - which target an increase in the manufacturing sector's share of EU GDP to 20% by 2035 - signal a welcome shift towards a more proactive approach to industrial policy. However, the central question for European petrochemicals remains whether these initiatives will be delivered with the necessary scale and speed to reverse long-term structural decline.

Despite the challenges facing our industry, our member companies continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience and a strong commitment to innovation.

These qualities lie at the heart of “Rethinking Resilience”, the theme of our 60th Annual Meeting, which will take place in Vienna from 5 to 8 October 2026. The event will provide an exclusive forum for discussing the key issues shaping our sector as it navigates an increasingly complex environment. I am particularly pleased to announce the line-up of speakers who will open the event and set the stage for these important discussions: Dr Markus Kamieth, CEO of BASF and President of CEFIC; Roger Kearns, CEO of Borouge International; and Kerstin Jorna, Director-General for the Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs at the European Commission.

60th Annual Meeting - Website

With best regards,

Johann Lenhart
Managing Director (EPCA)